The political value of modi’s nye speech _ decent neta

The Prime Minister delivered a speech on the last day of the year. Regional rural bank notification The circumstances were unusual (Demonetisation), so the speech had to be oddly timed. Regional rural bank recruitment 2014 Soon after the speech, twitter was bursting with how the next few elections were going to be won by the BJP. I think it is a little premature to conclude that.


• Home loans: For loans up to 2 lakh – 3 per cent interest relief; 9 lakh – 4 per cent interest relief; 12 lakh – 3 per cent interest relief will be given

My liberal estimate at the upper end is that about 3.1 lakh voters will straight away benefit from this (estimates basis of lending data). Nwabiagya rural bank This could be much higher but unpredictable at this moment. Regional rural bank recruitment 2016 Voters will get a minimum benefit of Rs 6000 to a maximum of Rs 36000 at the upper end. Imus rural bank Budget impact will not exceed Rs 376 crores

If we assume that all farmers take a loan. Manipur rural bank The current average loan outstanding is Rs 76000. Rural bank branches This translates a net benefit of Rs 2660 per farmer and will benefit about 118m farmers. Amenfiman rural bank Budget impact at the max would be Rs 31388 crores

• For small entrepreneurs, credit guarantee raised from 1 crore to 2 crore. Rural bank online he government has also said for small businesses, cash credit limit raised to 25 per cent from 20 per cent.

• A few days ago the government gave huge tax relief to small entrepreneurs, On digital transactions, their tax will be calculated at 6 per cent, not 8.

• For pregnant women, a national scheme is being launched, Pregnant women will get Rs. 6,000 for their delivery, vaccination, for nutritious meals. Regional rural bank merger latest news This will be transferred straight to their account

• When banks get large deposits, they reduce interest rates on deposits, Senior citizens will be assured 8 per cent interest on their deposits up to Rs. 7.5 lakh.

This is likely to benefit about 90 m people. Elders rural bank This translates to a net benefit of Rs 3750 per individual and a budget impact of about Rs 33750 cr at the max.

Overall, at the outer limit, about 250m voters (about 30% of all voters) are likely to benefit from the Prime Ministers doles announced last night. Rural bank limited The maximum outflow is likely to be about Rs 76000 crores each year. Ahantaman rural bank In reality, the number could be much lower.

a. Regional rural bank officer scale 1 salary To increase the gap with the opposition in rural India. Kumawuman rural bank In Urban India, BJP enjoys a massive gap against every party but not so in rural India. Mizoram rural bank Our calculations show that even a 5% swing against BJP in rural India could damage the BJP significantly. Arunachal pradesh rural bank Please read this article of mine to understand the political ramifications of Modi’s rural focus

b. Ga rural bank The second group that Modi is targetting is women. Regional rural bank recruitment 2015 notification Almost all surveys show that the BJP struggles with female voters. Meghalaya rural bank Please read this article to understand the BJP disadvantage amongst women

c. Regional rural bank vacancy 2016 The last group that Modi is targetting is senior citizens. Agribusiness rural bank BJP did not do well amongst these voters in 2014 and low interest rate regime may not be helping much. Regional rural bank recruitment 2015 16 An example is the key battleground State of Bihar. Regional rural bank syllabus It shows how BJP struggled against MGB much more amongst older voters

The main challenges I see is that the Farmer loans are too loaded at the top end any therefore any waiver does not add much to those farmers. Nagaland rural bank Interest discount schemes have always existed and donot necessarily deliver election results on account of other ground realities (caste for example). Rural bank definition Only full loan waivers work very well. Regional rural bank meaning Secondly, loans are not an annual event, so the voter impact itself could be limited. Regional rural bank definition Lastly, a many of these loans are also taken through MFIs and local lenders. Regional rural bank official website These are not covered (atleast I did not see MFIs being mentioned).

The pregnancy scheme holds promise but given that it is a low frequency event, unclear how it would influence voting farther away from pregnancy. Rural bank foreclosed properties Our experience for a Government in a State shows it does not impact as we go further away from the event. Rural bank internet Also, other factors will play a critical role as usual.

On senior citizens, interest rates have already come down quite a bit, 8% may not be enough for most senior citizens given increased cost of living and medical expenses. Rural bank australia The one group that will definitely benefit from the scheme are poor who take home loans. Sugbuanon rural bank At this moment, these numbers are not large. Sekyere rural bank However, it could spur others to take loans and buy homes. Rural bank interest rates This group should definitely be thankful to the PM on election day.

The speech on NYE was crafted by number crunchers for political reasons with an eye on all the forthcoming elections. Regional rural bank headquarters They target BJP weak areas and therefore attempt to bolster the PM’s credibility with these groups. Akuapem rural bank Whether these will deliver numbers or not, time will tell but the opposition should realise that they are dealing with one of the greatest politician of our times. Adansi rural bank The sooner they offer a viable alternate vision, the better off they are, else they could be decimated in 2019.